Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 hours ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 15 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 71 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued July 15 at 9:59AM CDT until July 15 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Little Rock AR
Urban PEI: 35,635 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 15 March 2026
- June 25, 2026 · score 34 · 4.4 km
- July 15, 2026 · score 39 · 20.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 34.0603, -92.9563 |
| Nearest City | Hot Springs (50 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 35.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-15T14:59:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Flash Flood Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8bcecf4f901c093b873062516a9c1491 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-15T14:59:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-15T15:05:33.938Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Pike, AR; Calhoun, AR; Clark, AR; Ouachita, AR; Clark, AR; Ouachita, AR and 1 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued July 15 at 9:59AM CDT until July 15 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Little Rock AR |
| Expires | 2026-07-15T13:00:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Little Rock AR |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8bcecf4f901c093b873062516a9c14917a07d4e9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.52e960d96f87af66db38249099beb3bdd4887e0e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8c49d73e1cb7cd79661ce7a755ff505b40418fbb.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.368d9a0b40e34317fd6893eda313e6c2faef3ac1.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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